PERSPECTIVE
Tax credits $3 billion (when promised number sold is completed)
Too expensive. Not yet economically feasible.
Batttery cost high:
Must drive many miles to get the benefit
Benefits of mass production not known.
Inadeqate range, fueling problem for all electric vehicle (Volt adds gas engine)
Cost comparisons
Electric Gas
Fuel cost per mile .03 .10 at $3/gallon
Total cost, incl. battery .10-.20
Break even estimated at 90,000 miles
Prius, of the hybrids, wins
Environmental effects
Currently would take more coal generated electricity, which would cause pollution (extending that to include climate effect).
Overall judgment
Too costly to put money into producing lots of costly units - and production is an inefficient way to make progress in technology. That same money that is put into the extra costs would produce vastly greater advances and cost savings by doing direct research and experimentation.
If not now, when?
Given the cost to the taxpayers and to the purchasers, there is an extreme cost for the limited benefit, with a net negative effect on humans. But... we do need to develop this alternative, but at a lower cost and a higher effectiveness rate. Having people buy things that don't work economically may have a small momentum effect, but it is not worth it if I weigh both sides. However, increased research and development spending and increased experimentation would appear to be highly effective and should be done immediately, channeling the ineffective dollars in tax credits over to research for a much greater impact. There will be no loss to the fight against global warming and there will be a net gain in reduction when we succeed to the point where it becomes cost feasible, if we cause that to happen more quickly.
KEY CONCEPT PRICE DESIRABILITY
Must have a cheaper car, for people to buy it, with adequate range.
CHEVY VOLT
Cost: $41,000 plus, minus the tax credit perhaps $33,500
Extra cost compared to Camaro: $10,000.
Fuel cost savings: $600/year
Expected sales in 1st year: 10,000
Average savings in fuel: $1,500 to $2,000/year
40 mile range on electricity charge, then uses gas.
Battery cost: $8,000
Tax credit phases out when Nissan, GM sell 200,000 electric cars for each. Those credits would total to $3 billion dollars - fairly minor in total, but a net cost to the government of $7500 per vehicle, to help someone else buy a car.
I would estimate, at this time in 2011, that there will be a sales problem.
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Additional notes for those who want to explore in more detail, including information sources.
Read about the battery and its cost:
Cutting the costs
To cut the cost we need to use energy sources processed at one place where the cost to make it is not so inefficient nor polluting. As in Brazil, process ethanol in one central place. (Use the existing grid infrastructure.)
One proposal for handling the problems
Publicity, increase understanding a lot, why it is cheaper!!!
Use a cell-phone-like “rental” system. Car companies rent the battery part.
Increase volume, lower costs.
Brilliance would be in taking the risk (in one's mind) out of it, by using this system
RANGE
For high volume EV adoption, people need a way to extend their range in less than 10 minutes - and the only way to do this is by switching batteries.
However, the majority of charging will be done when cars are stationary for an extended period of time, so we will work with customers to provide charge spots where their cars are typically parked: at home, work, in parking lots and on streets.
The other type of charging is quick charging, providing a recharge to 80% state of charge in 30 minutes. 30-minute quick charge spots are more expensive to build and deploy and present challenges to the grid, but can be practical for certain situations. Fast charging (<10-minute full charge) is another technology under discussion but it is currently infeasible due to cost, technology and flexibility considerations.
To meet public acceptance, a car must include specific conditions: drive a minimum of 300 miles (482 km) between re-fueling, fill-up promptly and drive fast enough to match traffic. An electric car cannot go more than 100 miles (161 km) between re-charging, is difficult to re-charge in some instances and doesn't drive beyond 60 mpg as yet.
Uniting the cleaner energy of the electric motor with the long-range power of the gasoline engine yields a hybrid automobile with lower toxic emissions with better fuel economy - sometimes up to 30 miles a gallon, or more, than conventional cars.
However, due to production costs and refueling limitations, manufacturers estimate t
What makes this technology successful over previous attempts is the development of a braking system that recharges the battery every time you hit the brakes so you never need to recharge the battery.
TAX CREDITS
President Bush signed an energy bill in late 2005 that provides generous tax credits to people who buy new hybrid automobiles and other fuel-efficient vehicles starting Jan 1, 2006. Credits will decline after a car manufacturer has sold 60,000 hybrids under the new program, so buyers might have to act quickly to get the benefit.
Tesla Motor Company created the first, affordable roadster at half the price of previous street friendly vehicles at just under $50,000. Its sleek, its quiet and will never need refueling. It will also travel up to 300 miles without having to need a recharge, which really will only take 45 minutes total to complete. The Tesla Roadster S is the first in its kind to be an electric car and go from 0-60 miles per hour in 5.6 seconds as well as being able to hold up to 7 passengers.
COSTS OF BATTERIES
The cost of lithium-ion batteries has come down by over 75% in the past decade, creating a cost-effective, high-performance solution for EVs. The batteries are expected to perform for over 8 years and 2,000 recharges. If each charge gets 100 miles, the battery is projected to last 200,000 miles.
Use total cost indicator before buying. Enter that phrase into search engine and you can get one online that will calculate your costs and breakeven.
THE REASON FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
900,000 people die each year from causes directly attributable to outdoor air pollution.
The cost in lives of using ethanol
A recent study by a Stanford University professor concluded that 200 more people each year would die from respiratory problems related to ozone, the unseen component of smog, if all vehicles in the United States ran on a mostly ethanol fuel blend by 2020.
THE ECONOMICS
First, the inherent efficiency of electric motors allow us to travel three times farther in EVs than gasoline-powered vehicles per unit of energy.
Second, by moving toward electricity-powered transport, we open up new opportunities to utilize excess electricity that currently goes to waste at off-peak times, and to create new markets for renewable energy from wind, solar, geothermal and tidal sources.
Over the past 35 years, global demand for oil has increased at an average of about 1% per year, despite periodic price surges and their debilitating effects on consumer budgets and national economies.
While analysts identified $440 billion in oil payments by the US in 2008 as the largest transfer of wealth in human history, global oil trade totaled nearly $3 trillion in the same year. A shift to an electric transportation system based on renewable energy would inevitably result in a significant reduction in oil demand and potentially create one of the economic opportunities of the 21st century.
The most common type of charge spot will provide a "standard charge," which takes 4-8 hours to fully recharge a typical EV lithium-ion battery. The actual charge time will depend on the amount of charge remaining in the battery, the size of the battery, and the power level of the individual charge spot (certain select locations may be faster than the standard version).
Energy http://www.betterplace.com/the-opportunity-energy
Environmental http://www.betterplace.com/the-opportunity-environment
Economics http://www.betterplace.com/the-opportunity-economics
RANGE
Additional smaller battery system for back up. Weight. Cost. Connectivity. Like a reserve tank. Can drop it off or charge on your charger.
TIMING AND EFFECTIVENESS
"Electric vehicles are still on the fringe and will probably stay there because of lagging battery technology. Electric vehicles that emit no pollutants and no CO2 certainly make sense in polluted urban environments. They're the ultimate energy-efficient vehicles for stop-and-go driving because they waste no energy when they're stopped in traffic. But nobody has yet come up with a cheap, lightweight, safe, quickly rechargeable battery. And even if they did, it could take years for the new technology to go into mass production and for the public to accept it.
There's also the issue of whether or not electric vehicles would actually reduce pollution. The electricity needed to recharge the battery has to come from another power source. Unless that power source is nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, solar or geothermal, there is little or no net reduction in pollution or CO2 because most electrical power in this country is generated by burning coal or natural gas. No new nuclear power plants have been built in the U.S. for over 25 years, and many nukes are now reaching retirement age and will have to be decommissioned. Unless there is a rebirth of nuclear energy or a large-scale shift to alternative sources of clean power (which are more expensive and require huge financial investments), the future doesn't seem very bright for electric vehicles, either. GM already killed what could have been the first of many electric-powered cars (you should also see the documentary, "Who Killed the Electric Car?"
Even with an advanced battery breakthrough, some question whether the existing power infrastructure has the capacity to supply the needs of an expanding fleet of electrical vehicles. Yet some experts say the U.S has enough excess generating capacity to power up to 80% fo the vehicles on the road today if they were electric or plug-in electric-hybrids.
Limiters: stations for replacement, charging stations where park (or delete if can get easy replacement). How hard to have charging stations at parking places for business and shopping? Plug ins, with meters.
Cost of hybridizing, for longer range. Burn fuel to charge battery?
Problem: number of charging stations
But employers and/or parking locations can use it as a service for profit.
Keep ability to use gas, but what cost of this extra. Burn and create electricity.
Simpler connection …
In about two years, the Honda Civic Hybrid could start using lithium ion batteries. Despite views to the contrary, the move to lithium from nickel batteries could reduce the price premium for Honda hybrids.
Germany believes lithium ion batteries will alleviate the need for automakers to make hybrids with oversized nickel-based battery packs.
Assume a car is a strong hybrid, with range on a battery charge sufficient to fulfill a normal daily commute cycle, and assume that the car is a plug-in hybrid, getting recharged at night from the power grid so no gasoline energy whatsoever is used in its daily functions. This is not a huge assumption – these cars are here today, and soon they will make it out of the tinkerer’s garages and onto the dealer’s showroom floors. How much per mile does it cost to drive these cars?
3.4 cents per mile. Compared to gasoline powered cars, all-electric cars use far less energy to drive the same distance, and consequently cost far less to fuel.
Speed up implementation. Finance. Tax credits, dropping over time.
More on costs of battery:
In June 2005, the L.A. Times reported that hybrid battery replacement costs dropped from $10,000 in 2001 to about $3,000 today. But three months later, Car and Driver's Brock Yates—no fan of hybrids—wrote, "battery replacement will cost $5,300 for the Toyota and Lexus hybrids, and the Ford Escape replacements run a whopping $7,200." Yates compared hybrid's rechargeable batteries to the "dry cells in your flashlight...[which] have finite lives and store less power with age." He also insinuated some kind of cover-up, writing that "industry types are not talking about total battery life."
”My dealer estimated the replacement cost at $7,000."
A 2007 study by the non-profit Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) calculated that powering a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) would cost the equivalent of roughly 75 cents per gallon of gasoline—a price not seen at the pump for 30 years.
charging up your car with electricity from the grid also wins handily over filling up at the gas station
The price difference of hybrids is expected to come down soon with the increase in demand and achievement of higher economy of scale.
Toyota is offering a whooping 180,000 miles warranty for their battery pack.
Modern HEVs make use of efficiency-improving technologies such as regenerative braking, which converts the vehicle's kinetic energy into battery-replenishing electric energy, rather than wasting it as heat energy as conventional brakes do
The Prius leaves the smallest carbon footprint, estimated at 3.8 tons of carbon dioxide released per year. The next smallest carbon footprint is left by the Civic Hybrid, at 4.5 tons annually.
Technology
Toyota uses its Hybrid Synergy Drive technology to power its gas-electric vehicles. In this system, the car runs on its secondary electric motor and then adds its main engine when accelerating or traveling at high speeds. Honda vehicles use a technology called Integrated Motor Assist (IMA). A vehicle using the IMA system runs primarily on its main engine, using its secondary electric motor for assistance when driving demands are increased.
First, how much does the electricity cost to charge a car? A gallon of gasoline has the equivalent energy content of 37 KWA of electricity. To compare costs, we have to factor for engine efficiency. A gasoline car engine has an efficiency of about 30% converting the gasoline into actual mechanical power. An electric engine has an efficiency of about 95%, so it essentially converts all of the electric power into mechanical energy.
Assuming an average electric cost of 8.7 cents per KWA, the equivalent of a gallon of gasoline would cost $1.02. [(0.087 * 37 / 0.95) * 0.3] If you can get your electric power at off-peak rates available from some utilities, your cost may be half this much.
This, however, is not the whole cost. You also have to count the cost of the battery. Assume an electric car battery will last for 4,000 charge cycles in the car and holds the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline (about 12 KWH). Batteries deteriorate with age so the battery will hold less power over time. The distance a car will go on a charge will deteriorate to the point that the battery will need to be replaced. The battery may still be useful to a stationary application like storing energy at a wind farm where charge capacity vs. weight or size is not an issue.
If the battery costs $4,000 dollars then each charge will cost you $1.00 for the electricity and $1.00 for use of the battery; a total fuel cost of $2.00 per gallon. If the battery cost goes up to $12,000 then your fuel cost is actually $4.00 per gallon.
So the battery cost is a big determining factor on how much ‘fuel’ savings you will receive from your electric car. Note that the mpg rating of the car is not a factor in this computation. It only assumes that the battery is replacing one gallon of gasoline.
There are numerous other factors that affect the cost of ownership for a hybrid electric vehicle:
The car may require much less maintenance.
The car without the battery may cost less than the equivalent gasoline powered car.
The battery may have value after the end of its useful life in the car.
A car may be purchased and the battery leased where you only pay the difference between the value new vs. the residual value plus financing charge.
The price of gasoline may keep going up.
The availability of off-peak power pricing.
The cost of charging a car away from home. Some businesses my offer free or discount charging as a loss leader for shopping at their store. The equivalent of selling milk below cost.
Government and utility credits.
